High order backlog — scrappage program has asymmetric impact
Wissmann: German Car Market to Grow to More Than 3.5 Million Units in 2009
Exports remain low, but "downturn slowed" - difficult commercial vehicles market
Frankfurt am Main, July 2, 2009. In the first half of 2009, registrations of new passenger cars in Germany rose by 26 percent, to 2.06 million units. The figure for June even amounted to 427,000 passenger cars, an increase of more than 40 percent compared to the same month last year. The result was the best for the month of June since the German reunification in 1990. However, this development is largely the result of the revised motor vehicle tax and the scrappage program (known as "environmental premium" in Germany). "Because the global financial and economic crisis has led to a plunge in exports especially, these incentives boost domestic demand particularly for small and compact cars and have thereby stabilized workforce levels this year," said Matthias Wissmann, President of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), at the VDA half-year press conference in Frankfurt.
The scrappage program has helped to stabilize sales this year for some automakers and their suppliers. Future developments will largely depend on whether the international markets regain their footing over the medium-term. At the press conference, Wissmann pointed out that scrappage programs had "side effects" because not all manufacturers benefited equally from the additional demand. "There's no denying that success is distributed asymmetrically; the increased demand is primarily limited to manufacturers of smaller and compact vehicles."
The VDA has always been in favor of economic policies that open up new long-term growth potential and do not, above all, distort competition. "However, there are times when governments need to take extraordinary measures to prevent even worse things from happening," said Wissmann.
An analysis of the 420,000 applications processed to date by the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) shows that German brands account for slightly more than half of the new vehicle registrations from the scrappage program. In addition, the statistics reveal that seven of the top ten automobiles sold as a result of the scrappage program were from German brands. The German premium brands are also successful in the sale of one-year-old vehicles, accounting for one out of nine such automobiles benefiting from the scrappage program. German brands had a 60-percent share of these sales overall.
The scrappage program has at least temporarily changed the buyer structure in Germany, with new vehicle registrations from private consumers more than doubling in the year to date, while sales to commercial customers have dropped noticeably as a result of the recession. Meanwhile, diesel's share of new vehicle registrations declined to less than 30 percent. "This is only a temporary reaction to the way the incentives from the scrappage program are structured and is in no way a sustained trend reversal," said Wissmann. Commercial customers' share of new vehicle registrations will increase again once the scrappage program ends, leading to a consequent rise in the proportion of diesel vehicles. Wissmann also emphasized that "we continue to consider the clean diesel an important element of Germany's technological expertise, especially since the renewed big difference in the price of diesel and gasoline will probably once again cause diesel's share of new vehicle registrations to increase."
The German automakers posted the same number of incoming domestic orders in June as in the same month of 2008. During the first six months of the year as a whole, domestic orders surpassed the level recorded in the first half of last year by 24 percent. The order backlog will therefore remain very high, according to Wissmann, and will thus help to stabilize production at plants in the second half of the year.
"However, it would be presumptuous to just extrapolate the growth in new vehicle registrations during the first half of the year into the future," said Wissmann, who went on to provide a more precise version of the previous VDA forecast for the German market in 2009. "Because the domestic market increased by 426,000 units in the first half of the year, sales during the year as a whole should total more than 3.5 million vehicles even if results in the second half of the year merely match those of the second half of 2008. Due to the high order backlog, we expect total sales to exceed 3.5 million units in 2009." This high level will "certainly not be attainable" next year.
Wissmann emphasized that the development of the German market was no reason "to become euphoric," since "the crucial factor for this industry is its success on foreign markets." That is because more than four-fifths of the approximately 11 million passenger vehicles produced by German automakers are destined for customers abroad.
According to Wissmann, the situation on many foreign markets is "anything but rosy," with passenger vehicle demand still unsatisfactory. Although there are increasing indications that the markets are bottoming out, this development is a result of the numerous incentive programs that countries other than Germany are also introducing. New vehicle registrations in Western Europe were down by 13 percent through May, while the decrease in the new EU member states was 26 percent. In the first half of 2009, the market for light vehicles in the U.S. contracted by 35 percent. The German brands did better than the market as a whole (minus 24 percent), increasing their market share by more than one percentage point, to 7.4 percent.
"The global sales crisis in the automotive industry is far from over, although we are seeing the first signs that the downturn is slowing," said Wissmann. In Europe, for example, new vehicle registrations in May were only five percent lower than in the same month last year, showing that the European market has regained considerable ground since the beginning of the year. "Respectable growth" is expected for the Chinese market, whereas the U.S. market will remain weak this year.
The continued difficulty experienced with car sales worldwide is still having a big impact on exports by German manufacturers. As a result, German automakers' exports fell in June by 23 percent to 289,000 passenger cars. For the first six months as a whole, the total decrease was 35 percent.
However, although incoming orders from abroad have declined by 26 percent during the year to date, they were only down by 20 percent in June. If seasonal factors are taken into account, the figure has continually risen since February, which seems to indicate that the downturn has bottomed out. Said Wissmann: "We expect foreign demand to slowly stabilize in the coming months as a result of the slight improvement in consumer confidence and the various incentive measures on many markets. This in turn will have a positive effect on our export opportunities. The decline in exports should therefore be far less pronounced in the second half of the year. But we're not out of the woods yet."
Due to the weak foreign markets, German car production in the first half of the year amounted to 2.3 million units, a decline of 24 percent from the same period last year. The drop totaled ten percent in June. However, manufacturing has increased substantially over the past two months when adjusted for seasonal effects.
Despite the crisis, the number of employees in the German automotive industry has remained almost unchanged, due in part to the introduction of short-time work. While the revenues of the German auto industry dropped by more than 40 percent in the first four months of the year (domestic revenues were down by 30 percent, export revenues were cut in half), the core workforce declined only slightly in the past 12 months, decreasing by 17,800 employees or 2.4 percent to 729,800 men and women. Said Wissmann: "The companies are still aiming to retain their core workforce in any way possible. The crucial question here is how quickly the international markets can regain their footing."
The global contraction of the automotive markets is hurting the supplier industry in particular, said Wissmann. Supplier revenues declined by one-third in Germany in the first four months of the year, while the supplier's export business dropped by 46 percent. The companies' financing situation continues to be difficult. "The strained situation between our companies and the banking and insurance sector continues to be a major concern for us," said Wissmann. "It's unacceptable that our companies' financing situation continues to worsen despite government assistance for the banks. This can quickly threaten the very existence of medium-size businesses in particular." Wissmann therefore reminded the banking sector that "their purpose is to supply businesses with financing, and it is time that the credit institutes fulfilled this task."
The situation with trade credit insurance is similarly precarious. With the support of the German Insurance Association (GDV), the VDA is attempting to convince insurance companies "not to downgrade the ratings of our industry across the board, but instead to make decisions only on the basis of individual assessments," said Wissmann. "Successes have been posted here as well in individual cases. We expect the German government to implement a reinsurance solution for trade credit insurance policies. However, not all of the government departments have so far approved the measure. In view of this support, the task now is to create the conditions that will once again encourage insurance companies to make proactive business decisions for improving the prospects of the automotive industry. Several medium-size industrial sectors are affected, and we quickly need clarity concerning this issue."
The situation in the commercial vehicle sector remains critical. The international commercial vehicle markets continue to be caught up in the global recession, and an end to the downturn is not yet in sight, especially not for heavy-duty trucks. The worldwide economic slump is also reflected in the German manufacturers' export figures. Exports of commercial vehicles with GVWs up to six tons are down 66 percent for the year to date and there is a 69-percent decrease in heavy-duty truck exports. The German market has also contracted strongly, with new van registrations declining by 28 percent in the first half of the year, while sales of heavy-duty vehicles over six tons dropped by 33 percent. Wissmann pointed out, however, that there are initial indications that the decline is slowing down. Adjusted for seasonal factors, orders have stabilized over the past few months at a low level. Wissmann expects new vehicle registrations over the year as a whole to drop substantially, decreasing by about one-third to 230,000 vehicles.
The poor foreign business has caused the German manufacturers to slam the brakes on production. They manufactured 58 percent fewer vans in the first half of 2009 and had to reduce the output of heavy-duty trucks by 66 percent. The situation faced by the trailer and vehicle body industries is even more dramatic. Demand in these sectors has decreased by half throughout Europe and in some areas has even plummeted by 90 percent. "The German government should therefore quickly provide lasting help to revive the market by increasing its investments in the road transport infrastructure and by providing incentives to replace old vehicles with new ones. What's more, the European Commission shouldn't burden commercial vehicles with additional requirements," said Wissmann.
At the beginning of December, as usual, the VDA will provide its forecast of the development of the German automotive industry in the coming year. Said Wissmann: "The downturn could then be over if, as several factors seem to indicate, the foreign markets stabilize at a low level in the second half of 2009 and recover slightly next year. However, it will be a long and tough road." Wissmann does not expect to see a rapid upswing, emphasizing that "only a sustained stabilization of the financial markets and resurgent consumer confidence can ensure that world markets will enjoy sustained growth. The international passenger car markets will again expand once overall economic rebounds and the urgently needed sense of optimism are firmly established." Wissmann closed his presentation with a reference to the 63rd IAA Cars, which will be held in Frankfurt in September 2009. "Preparations for the world's most important mobility trade fair are in full swing," he said. "We are convinced the IAA will once again be successful, despite the difficult global economic environment. This IAA, which will be opened by German Chancellor Merkel on September 17, will present an impressive array of innovations and be an auto show for those who will shape the future and come out of the crisis even stronger." A total of 700 exhibitors, including more than 60 automakers from all over the world, will present world premieres at the IAA. Advanced ticket sales for the IAA will commence in a few days. In-depth information concerning the IAA is available at www.iaa.de.
Note for editorial offices:
The VDA Annual Report 2009 presented at the press conference can be downloaded from www.vda.de.
