Glittering display of premieres in Geneva – "model offensive” for electric cars
Wissmann: German automotive industry leads in CO2 reduction
Strong rise in passenger car exports – normalization on the domestic market
Geneva/Berlin, 2 March 2010. "This Geneva Motor Show shows that the German automotive industry is working intensively on developing electric vehicles – ranging from the mild hybrid and the plug-in hybrid to the fully electric car. The high speed at which our manufacturers are developing innovations for alternative powertrains is impressive. The electric powertrain, in all its variations, will be the second strategic pillar of this key industry,” stressed Matthias Wissmann, President of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), at the Association’s Press Conference at the Geneva Motor Show. At the same time, Wissmann said, consumption by the classical powertrains – clean diesels and gasoline engines – was sinking continually: "Today our German OEMs have more than 140 models on offer that consume less than 5 liters to cover 100 km. This corresponds to CO2 emissions of around 130 g/km. The number of these models has nearly doubled as compared to what was available last year,” he said.
Wissmann pointed out that every year the German manufacturers are making faster progress in reducing the CO2 output of their new models. Following 2008, a year in which the average CO2 value of all newly registered passenger cars in Germany had already fallen by 3.0 per cent, in 2009 the overall average CO2 values actually fell by 6.5 per cent, to below 154 g/km. He added that in the current year, too, the trend in reducing CO2 was continuing. In January 2010 the average CO2 value of all newly registered passenger cars in Germany was 3.8 per cent lower than the figure for the previous year. Here the German group brands recorded a drop of 4.3 per cent, which was almost double the progress made by the importers.
The German manufacturers are leading the international field when it comes to the fuel efficiency of their models. According to the official statistics from the German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA), in nine out of ten segments – from small cars to family MPVs – in January once again the newly registered vehicles from German OEMs have, on average, lower CO2 values than the imported brands. Wissmann emphasized, "In six out of ten segments we have the CO2 champions, i.e. the cars with the lowest CO2 emissions.” Among the cars with the largest percentage reductions, the top four are all, without exception, German brands – with double-digit reductions achieved within only a single year; and the top 20 include 14 German models.
"The trend is clear: the CO2 champions from German production are no longer found solely among the small cars, but are increasingly conquering the compact and medium segments and the luxury segment,” Wissmann stressed. He went on to say that this was a result of the high level of investment in research and development that had been increased, even in the year of crisis, by 4.4 percent to 20.9 billion euro, with more than half of this going on environmental technologies. The drive for innovation on the part of the German manufacturers was demonstrated by the fact that German group brands make up 85 per cent of all newly registered passenger cars that already meet the demanding Euro 5 exhaust standard, which will become mandatory in January 2011.
Wissmann emphasized that the race for the best future technology had not yet been won. Therefore the industry was not putting all its eggs in one basket, but instead pursuing a broad-based strategy that included the optimization and hybridization of classical combustion engines along with the development of electric cars with powerful batteries, hydrogen powertrains and fuel cells as long-term alternatives. "Only if the demand for cars with classical powertrains remains high can we finance the considerable investments necessary for electric mobility and other alternative powertrains as well,” he said.
He welcomed the German Government’s Development Plan for electric mobility, saying that this approach was correct and now had to be put into actual practice. According to the German Government, in the year 2020 there should be about one million electric vehicles on German roads. However, in the coming decade the optimized internal combustion engine would still account for the greatest share of new registrations.
"For electric mobility we need a relatively level playing field for competition, expenditure on research and market launch impetus in Europe. We do not want to see competition between subsidies in Europe,” Wissmann underscored. International harmonization, standardization and appropriate tax conditions for electric mobility were needed. Research support for battery production in particular was the key issue in this area. The automotive business, the energy sector, the electrical industry and other industries had already put in a lot of work on electric mobility and in preparation for the summit meeting with the German Chancellor on 3 May 2010, the German Government and business representatives would develop a structure for a common working program, Wissmann stated.
International competition in electric mobility had already been raging for quite a while, Wissmann said, adding that electric mobility was a strategic goal in important countries other than Germany. "Now the crucial thing is that as a location for industry and research Germany should build up a competitive lead,” he stressed.
The VDA president also presented the latest market statistics in Geneva. For example, 194,800 new passenger cars were registered in Germany in February 2010. Compared to the very strong result for February of last year, which owing to the introduction of the environmental bonus was at a ten-year peak, this represents a fall of 30 per cent. Taking the two months together, their average is still 5 per cent higher than the long-term average value. The VDA president also expects a positive "net effect” for the years 2009 and 2010. In 2009 the domestic market expanded to over 3.8 million units, but for 2010 one can expect to see the figures normalizing and a volume between 2.75 million and 3.0 million new passenger car registrations. Wissmann said, "On average that comes to just over 3.3 million new cars – and therefore these two years will average out well above the medium-term market volume, which is about 3.0 to 3.1 million units.”
A clear upward trend can be seen in commercial registrations. Since May 2009 their proportion within the overall passenger car market rose from 31 to 57 per cent and it has thus returned to its 2008 level. Wissmann: "We assume that the commercial registrations will maintain the larger share they have now reached.”
Furthermore, he said, the share of diesels among new car registrations was increasing. After falling last year by 14 percentage points to 31 per cent, this value has nearly climbed back to the 40 per cent mark. "This is not only an after-effect of the environmental bonus, but also a consequence of the price difference between gasoline and diesel fuel at the pumps increasing again,” Wissmann stressed, adding that diesel had now become cheaper in relative terms.
A "return to normality” can also clearly be seen in the segment structures. The share of minis, small and compact cars is now sinking, whereas the medium segment will recover again this year. Wissmann said that the premium market would develop better than the market as a whole. "This is indicated by the developments in commercial registrations and company cars, and not least by the recovery of the clean diesel,” he said.
As expected, domestic incoming orders fell sharply in February – an effect due to the high level in the previous year. The level of orders stands at 357,000 units, which is only slightly below the average of recent years. Wissmann emphasized, "It is obvious that the bonus-related ‘piles of orders’ have largely been reduced again.” He added that there was something very different about the current situation compared to the same month last year: "Back then the motto was ‘move forward only as far as you can see,’ but today it is once again possible to do reliable planning.”
Production, which climbed 15 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009 and exceeded 1.3 million vehicles, i.e. was once more slightly above the level of recent years, also rose again in February. A total of 443,200 passenger cars were built, almost 50 per cent more than last year. Since the beginning of this year production has increased by over one third. This means that after two months production is only just under 5 per cent below the average value of the last six years. The level that passenger car production will reach in the year 2010 as a whole will depend principally on the development of the export markets, Wissmann explained.
In the current year the global market for passenger cars will expand from 55.3 million units (2009 figure) to around 57 million units, Wissmann said. However, the growth would take place outside Europe. In January the Chinese vehicle market was up 121 per cent; China reached a volume of 1.06 million passenger cars, for the first time making it a larger market than the whole of Western Europe (1.03 million cars). "However, we are not assuming that China can maintain this rapid tempo throughout the year, but for 2010 we expect market growth of at least 10 per cent in this region and a volume of over 9.2 million units,” Wissmann said. In India growth is expected to be 12 per cent.
"So it is quite obvious that the weight on the world’s automotive markets is shifting. The importance of the Asian markets is increasing all the time. Those who, like the German manufacturers and suppliers, are present there, will be among the winners,” Wissmann emphasized.
In 2010 the US market, where for over five years now the German manufacturers have continually increased their market shares, will expand by about 11 per cent to 11.5 million light vehicles. By contrast, in Western Europe there will be impacts in several countries as the bonuses come to an end. And for the new EU member states there are still no signals that recovery is on the way.
In February 2010 the German manufacturers exported 337,600 passenger cars, which represents growth of 57 per cent. This means that exports have risen for five months in succession. However, in February 2009 exports had collapsed by 47 per cent. Incoming orders from abroad went up by one third in February 2010, continuing the upturn seen since August 2009.
Wissmann said, "Against this backdrop, once again the double strategy of the German manufacturers – of increasing export levels while at the same time establishing production sites abroad – proves itself to be both far-sighted and correct. In order to assess the stability of this industry, one therefore has not only to examine the export figures, but also to consider local presence on the growth markets. In the last 15 years, the German manufacturers have trebled their production abroad, doubled their exports, and increased their domestic production by 50 per cent.”
In the year 2010, the VDA president said, for the first time more cars from German group brands will roll off the production lines at sites abroad than in Germany. "Up to now, that has also benefited employment in Germany. There was a rule of thumb that said two to three new jobs abroad either secure or create one job at home. We will do everything we can to ensure that this ratio continues to apply in the future.” A decisive factor was that the work put into research and development in Germany would have to be maintained at a high level, Wissmann added.
