Global demand for automobiles:

Figures for 2009 Better than Expected – Demand to Grow Slightly in 2010

Frankfurt am Main, January 15, 2010. The international market for passenger cars developed much better than expected in 2009. At the beginning of last year, it had been forecast that new passenger vehicle registrations would plummet worldwide by 15 to 20 percent. However, government incentives (mostly in the form of tax breaks) and scrappage programs helped boost demand for new vehicles on many foreign markets so that passenger car sales dropped by only 3 percent during the year as a whole. The Chinese market in particular prevented global passenger car sales declining more strongly, thanks to the country’s veritable sales boom in 2009. The global passenger vehicles market is expected to recover in 2010, due to development in the Asian growth markets as well as the U.S. Western Europe, on the other hand, will probably see the number of new vehicle registrations drop because of the discontinuation of government incentives in several countries.

At 13.6 million units, the number of new passenger cars registered in Western Europe in 2009 was nearly 1 percent higher than in the previous year. The strongest growth was recorded in Germany, where sales rose by 23 percent. France, which has been offering a scrappage bonus since late 2008, also saw sales increase, with the figure rising by 11 percent during the year as a whole. The Italian passenger car market, which has received government assistance since February, almost reached the previous year's level (minus 0.2 percent). Although the passenger car business has accelerated considerably in Spain and the UK since scrappage programs were introduced there last May, full-year sales were down by 6 percent and 18 percent, respectively, due to low sales figures at the beginning of the year.

The financial and economic crisis caused demand in the new EU member states to contract by more than one fourth in 2009 (minus 27 percent). New vehicle registrations rose only in the Czech Republic (up 13 percent) and Slovakia (up 7 percent) during the year as a whole. Sales of passenger cars in Poland were at about the same level as in the previous year. Some of the biggest decreases were recorded by Romania (down by nearly 60 percent) and Bulgaria (minus 49 percent), while sales in the Baltic states even plummeted by 71 percent in 2009.

By contrast, passenger car sales in Turkey rose by 21 percent in full-year 2009, to 369,800 vehicles. The Turkish government had cut the sales tax for subcompacts in half from March through September, thus providing passenger car demand with a brief boost. The passenger car business almost shrank in half in Russia in 2009 (minus 49 percent). Although the Russian economy is in a deep recession, it began to show initial signs of a recovery at the end of the year. Passenger car sales are expected to increase slightly in Eastern Europe as a whole in 2010.

In Brazil, sales of light vehicles (passenger cars and light trucks) rose by nearly 13 percent in the year as a whole, to more than 3 million units. In the neighboring country of Argentina, on the other hand, sales declined by nearly one-fifth.

In the U.S., sales of light vehicles stabilized further toward the end of the year. The financial and economic crisis hit the U.S. automobile business very hard, causing sales of new vehicles to decrease sharply last year. In full-year 2009, the U.S. recorded a 21-percent drop in sales, to 10.4 million light vehicles. The German manufacturers have been increasing their share of the U.S. light vehicles market over the past five years, and now hold 7.3 percent of the market.

Toward the end of the year, the passenger car business also picked up considerable steam in Japan, where a total of 3.9 million new vehicles were sold in 2009 (minus 7 percent).

After a short period of lower demand at the beginning of the year, passenger vehicle sales in China and India grew very dynamically in 2009. In China, sales of passenger cars, MPVs, and SUVs rose by more than 47 percent during the year as a whole, to 8.4 million units. As part of its economic stimulus program, the Chinese government had cut the sales tax in half for subcompacts with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less, thus driving up passenger car demand despite the somewhat slower economic growth. The Indian passenger car market also expanded noticeably last year, with sales rising by over 17 percent, to slightly more than 1.8 million vehicles.