Study: By 2026, there is a risk of 20% fewer vehicles produced worldwide due to a shortage of semiconductors

Unless suitable countermeasures are taken, the ongoing shortage of semiconductors in the automotive industry will lead to a global drop in production of 20% by 2026. This is the result of a study commissioned by the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA). from a leading consulting firm. According to the authors of the study, the shortage led to a global decline in production of 9% already in 2021.

According to the study, demand for semiconductors in the automotive industry will triple by 2030. However, overall demand across all sectors only increases by a factor of 1.8 in the same period. This means: The growth in chip demand in the automotive industry is 1.7 times higher than the average for other industries. The automotive industry is therefore hardest hit in a sector comparison.

Until 2030, the proportion of chips required for the automotive industry grows to 14% of global semiconductor capacities. For comparison: Today's market share is 8%. The high demand results in particular from the ramp-up of electromobility and an increasing proportion of driver assistance systems and functional extensions, including autonomous driving.

High demand for chips over 90 nanometers
Chips larger than 90nm are of enormous importance for the automotive industry. According to the study, by 2030, around 60% of the automotive industry's chip requirements will be of this node size. Currently, however, less than 20% of announced capital expenditures in the global chip industry through 2025 will be in node sizes of 65nm or larger.

A focus of funding and investment is currently on components of 7nm or smaller, for example microprocessors with higher computing power and improved energy efficiency at the same time.

Another result of the study: by 2030, the automotive industry will become the third most important chip buyer after mobile communication and Data processing. China has already recognized this. According to the study, Chinese semiconductor companies in particular are investing in the node size of 90nm or larger to promote domestic automobile companies.

In order to counteract the impending sustained decline in production in Europe and to make the supply chain much more resilient, additional production capacities in the automotive-relevant node sizes in Europe must be promoted. The message is "expansion, expansion, expansion" along a comprehensible concept using pragmatic approval procedures.

VDA President Hildegard Müller: "The EU Chips Act must now be followed by action. Europe must now invest in the production of automotive-related chips and ramp up production of chips. This is the only way to minimize dependence on Asia for semiconductors and strengthen the resilience of the German and European automotive industry. And only then the German and European automotive industry will be able to continue its leading role worldwide, secure prosperity and further promote climate-neutral mobility."